Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
The Federal Open Market Committee's statement after meeting in Washington said inflation has been "elevated" and remains a risk, using words identical to the last decision on June 29.\n\n
From the Sensex basket, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro, Maruti Suzuki India, Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and NTPC were the major laggards. Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Power Grid and Bajaj Finserv were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India has no plans to cut the short-term repo rate for some time, a senior central bank official said on Thursday.
The US dollar has risen about 15 per cent since mid-2015.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Titan, UltraTech Cement, ITC, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the major gainers. Tata Steel, Axis Bank, NTPC, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank were the major laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, Titan, Asian Paints, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers. In contrast, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, HCL Technology, State Bank of India and ICICI Bank were the laggards.
A decision on the interest rate for close to 60 million active subscribers of the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is likely to be taken in the next Central Board of Trustee (CBT) meeting, starting on March 25. A letter from the social security organisation regarding the convening of the 233rd CBT meeting was sent to all the board members last week, soliciting their presence in the meeting. Although the venue and the agenda haven't been drawn out yet, sources familiar with the matter say that the interest rate is unlikely to go below 8 per cent level amid a rising interest rate scenario across the globe.
'India is not so distant from years of high and entrenched inflationary expectations that it should start trying to play games with the economy the way the West's central bankers think they are entitled to,' argues Mihir S Sharma.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
Fed policymakers' deepening uncertainty about their own projections has resulted in the central bank sending mixed messages
Among Sensex shares, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, ITC and Asian Paints were the biggest winners. On the other hand, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Power Grid were among the laggards.
Adah Sharma, who seems to be holding back an eye roll, is the only half-way decent actor amidst the crowd of amateurs and a bored-looking Rahul Dev in Reeta Sanyal, observes Deepa Gahlot.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
Benchmark Sensex rose by 443 points to close at a new record high while Nifty settled above the 24,100 mark on Monday on buying in banking and IT shares in line with gains in Asian and European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex settled higher by 443.46 points or 0.56 per cent at an all-time high of 79,476.19.
India's largest IT services firm TCS on Thursday reported a 4.99 per cent increase in its September quarter net profit at Rs 11,909 crore. The Tata Group company had reported a net profit of Rs 11,342 crore in the year-ago period, while in the preceding quarter, it had a post tax net of Rs 12,040 crore, a company filing said.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
On the gaining side, Hero Moto, SBI, HDFC, HUL and L&T have gained between 1-1.4 per cent.
The rupee rose by 4 paise at 66.88 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the local market in New Delhi on Tuesday amid subdued demand by jewellers after the government announced the customs duty cut on the yellow metal and silver to 6 per cent.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
Debt mutual fund (MF) schemes, which witnessed relatively muted inflows in the past three years, saw a surge in investor interest in April amid election-induced volatility in the equity markets. Active debt funds garnered nearly Rs 66,000 crore net inflows in April, most at least since December 2020.
"I think the Fed is out of control. I think what they're doing is wrong. Under the Obama administration, you had a lot of help because they had very little interest," Trump told reporters at the White House Thursday while responding to questions on the down sliding of the stock market for a second consecutive day.
From the Sensex basket, Sun Pharma, Maruti, Power Grid, Titan, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services and Nestle were the gainers.
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
Calling Canada's behaviour 'the pits', India's recalled high commissioner Sanjay Verma says India was backstabbed and treated in a most unprofessional manner by a country that is supposed to be a friendly democracy.
Global fund managers remain bullish on the Japanese stock markets, which is now their most preferred destination in the Asian region. Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies in their recent reports, have cited their preference for the Land Of The Rising Sun, which is fast becoming the land of the rising equities, too.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by 160 points on Thursday in choppy trade following gains in select banking and auto counters amid mixed global cues. The 30-share index gained 160 points to settle at 62,570.68 as 13 of its components advanced while 17 declined. The barometer opened lower but later gained momentum to touch a high of 62,633.56 in the day's trade.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, ITC, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Maruti, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
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