Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the local market in New Delhi on Tuesday amid subdued demand by jewellers after the government announced the customs duty cut on the yellow metal and silver to 6 per cent.
'Party workers sit outside polling booths and they know everything that is happening.' 'Besides, as a voter when you push the EVM button to vote there is a paper slip that comes out showing you who you voted for.'
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
A decision on the interest rate for close to 60 million active subscribers of the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is likely to be taken in the next Central Board of Trustee (CBT) meeting, starting on March 25. A letter from the social security organisation regarding the convening of the 233rd CBT meeting was sent to all the board members last week, soliciting their presence in the meeting. Although the venue and the agenda haven't been drawn out yet, sources familiar with the matter say that the interest rate is unlikely to go below 8 per cent level amid a rising interest rate scenario across the globe.
Vasan Bala's ability to jolt our Bollywood conditioned brains into experiencing new forms of menace, turning a John Woo-style prison riot into a Chinese communist movement and showcasing Alia in a savage new light won Sukanya Verma's dil and jigra.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
Debt mutual fund (MF) schemes, which witnessed relatively muted inflows in the past three years, saw a surge in investor interest in April amid election-induced volatility in the equity markets. Active debt funds garnered nearly Rs 66,000 crore net inflows in April, most at least since December 2020.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) will hold discussions with the Centre and state governments on how the production of compressed biogas (CBG), which can be used in vehicles that run on compressed natural gas (CNG), can be expanded in the country, its majority shareholder Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC) said. The demand for CNG vehicles has been rising significantly in the country. MSIL sold 145,000 CNG vehicles in the first quarter of 2024-25, marking a 28.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth.
Global fund managers remain bullish on the Japanese stock markets, which is now their most preferred destination in the Asian region. Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies in their recent reports, have cited their preference for the Land Of The Rising Sun, which is fast becoming the land of the rising equities, too.
All policy planners want low interest rate, says Jaitley
From the Sensex basket, Sun Pharma, Maruti, Power Grid, Titan, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services and Nestle were the gainers.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, ITC, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Maruti, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
India's gross domestic product growth rate slipped to 7%.
From the Sensex basket, NTPC, Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Bharti Airtel, Maruti, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the laggards.
The Federal Open Market Committee's statement after meeting in Washington said inflation has been "elevated" and remains a risk, using words identical to the last decision on June 29.\n\n
'India is not so distant from years of high and entrenched inflationary expectations that it should start trying to play games with the economy the way the West's central bankers think they are entitled to,' argues Mihir S Sharma.
The US dollar has risen about 15 per cent since mid-2015.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
The Reserve Bank of India has no plans to cut the short-term repo rate for some time, a senior central bank official said on Thursday.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
From the Sensex basket, Titan, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Wipro and ITC were the major laggards. ICICI Bank, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the major gainers.
Fed policymakers' deepening uncertainty about their own projections has resulted in the central bank sending mixed messages
Foreign investors have pulled out a massive Rs 22,000 crore from Indian equities so far this month, due to uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections and outperformance of Chinese markets.
If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by 160 points on Thursday in choppy trade following gains in select banking and auto counters amid mixed global cues. The 30-share index gained 160 points to settle at 62,570.68 as 13 of its components advanced while 17 declined. The barometer opened lower but later gained momentum to touch a high of 62,633.56 in the day's trade.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to close marginally lower in highly volatile trade on Thursday due to losses in Larsen & Toubro and cautious trading ahead of the release of domestic inflation data. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 35.68 points or 0.06 per cent to settle at 61,904.52 after hitting the crucial 62,000 mark in opening deals. During the day, it hit a low of 61,823.07 and a high of 62,168.22.
It seems that the West is sending a signal to India that it can return to old hostilities unless India toes their line on Russia. It is no surprise that India is being compared with Putin's Russia in terms of targeting 'dissidents' as the West calls these Khalistani terrorists, asserts Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
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